When you see Jesse Tyler Ferguson’s virtuoso turn playing dozens of characters in the solo comedy, “Fully Committed,” you leave the theater assured that he will get a Tony nomination for his performance.And then you start considering his competition for one of the five slots: Frank Langella (“The Father”), Gabriel Byrne (“Long Day’s Journey into Night”), James Earl Jones (“The Gin Game”), Jeff Daniels (“Blackbird”), Mark Strong (“A View from the Bridge”), Clive Owen (“Old Times”), Tim Pigott-Smith (‘King Charles III”), and Sam Rockwell (“Fool for Love”). And that doesn’t even include Jim Parsons (“Act of God”), Al Pacino (“China Doll”), and Bruce Willis (“Misery”) who are not as likely to make the cut.As Elaine Stritch so succinctly put it: “There’s so much fucking talent in this town.”True enough. That means, of course, that some very deserving performances will not be acknowledged when the nominations are announced. There are very few shoo-ins. Indeed, there are probably only two when it comes to lead actor in a play: Langella and Strong are probably assured of a spot. The rest of the above will hope the theatrical gods are on their side.That’s also true among the actresses in dramas who are under consideration, only one of whom could be considered a near-lock for a nomination: Lupita Nyong’o, the Oscar-winning actress (“12 Years A Slave”) who has made a stirring Broadway debut in “Eclipsed,” Danai Gurira’s drama about female captives in war-torn Liberia. Among those who have a good chance to join her company are Jessica Lange (“Long Day’s Journey into Night”), Laurie Metcalf (“Misery”), Michelle Williams (“Blackbird”), Sophie Okoneda (“The Crucible”), Nicola Walker (“A View from the Bridge”), and Andrea Martin (“Noises Off!”). In such a strong field, one surmises there’s won’t be room for Linda Lavin (“Our Mother’s Brief Affair”), Cicely Tyson (“The Gin Game”), or Keira Knightly (“Therese Raquin”). The musical categories are a bit less competitive. Both Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. are sure bets for “Hamilton.” It would be surprising if Benjamin Walker (“American Psycho”), Alex Brightman (“School of Rock”), and Danny Burstein (“Fiddler on the Roof”) were left off the list. So that leaves Zachary Levi (“She Loves Me”), Andrew Keenan-Bolger (“Tuck Everlasting”), and Josh Young (“Amazing Grace”) to usurp one of those places. And what to do with the male stars of “Shuffle Along,” which includes Brian Stokes Mitchell, Joshua Henry, Billy Porter, and Brandon Victor Dixon? The Tony administration committee has yet to rule on their categorization.The competition becomes even fiercer among the women vying for nods. There are two probable nominees: British newcomer Cynthia Erivo who is also considered the front-runner for her triumphant debut in “The Color Purple,” and Philippa Soo, who plays the staunch spouse in “Hamilton.” Audra McDonald, who holds the record for the most Tony wins at six, is also likely to be nominated yet again for “Shuffle Along.” And the season also yielded especially strong performances from Jessie Mueller (“Waitress”), Laura Benanti (“She Loves Me”), Carmen Cusack (“Bright Star”), Sarah Charles Lewis (“Tuck Everlasting”), and Ana Villafañe, whose Gloria Estefan in “On Your Feet!” invariably brings the audience to do just that.Stritch had it right. That makes difficult the job of the Tony nominators, a group made up of about 40 professionals drawn from realms of theater and academia. The secret and weighted balloting for the nominees will take place on Monday night, May 2. Then the Tony voters, a pool of 846, will have their turn at determining the winners, to be announced on June 12.
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